Trying to figure out where the S&P 500 is headed

For a daytrader watching SPY for an intraday scalp, some days can feel infuriating, which is why I chose to not try and pursue my once dream of being a “daytrader” per se; I know myself too well, and sitting there all day waiting for a move can feel like watching water start to boil (not to mention, I do not think my execution is good enough for such quick moves). But for a swing trader, these down / choppy days on SPY can be an interesting time to scale into a longer-term position.

And of course the indicators and candlesticks can never be for sure; there are always going to be disappointments in our predictions. But I have found recently that analyzing the moving averages and daily chart candlesticks have been helpful as a guide for trades. By no means is it a guarantee, but by having these 10, 50, and 200 day moving average indicators in place, it has helped see the ultimate vision of where you would ideally like to see the chart going.

Looking at SPY on May 8, 2024, it seems to have held the 10-day moving average today and the last 4 days; on May 2nd we had that dip slightly below that had the bears coming out for that potential 493 sub-500 move, and now it seems the 10-day MA is creeping back up to the $511 .76 50-day MA (the 10 is $509.10) for a crossover, which has me leaning bullish back to $520-524 and new all-time highs.

Today’s candle from 5/8 is very bullish, however it did close below that main resistance of about roughly $518s, so one could be cautious of that. Tomorrow on 5/9 I would be looking for a close above that resistance to get excited about seeing $520s next week. Bears are looking for a close below the support to see back down to $511 aka the 50-day MA.

You could use the previous resistances as strikes for swinging calls, and then the 50 + 10-day MA as strike guides for puts. Ideally I would love to see the 5/17 $525 new ATH price hit, but knowing damn well you just cannot time it, the later-dated June calls might be wiser for $525 and even staying safe with a $510-500 puts in place.