Studying various Cup and Handle breakout patterns on the macro

When it comes to cup and handle breakouts on the macro, this has been one of my most favorite indicators for trade ideas when looking on the longer time frame, despite what the critics have to say (investors: need not read about the cup and handle if you are here for the long term). However, I have spotted some pretty crazy runs right before the “handle” breakout, some of which I was completely shocked actually played out (maybe technical analysis isn’t so bad after all if used responsibly, also hindsight can be amazing).

Silver Futures

Dubbed as “The largest Bullish Formation Ever Seen” by The Jerusalem Post and “The Granddaddy of Them All” amongst the recent bullishness of metals in 2023-2024 with retail traders and of course the Elliott Wave enthusiasts calling the big gold run as well, now Silver Futures (or, $SLV ETF), are at a crucial resistance level on the macro at the edge of the handle on the verge of a big breakout if it can stay above $30 and see 32 in the coming weeks. Bulls are looking for a break past $33.47. Similarly to gold, there is a sub pattern on the chart’s “handle” with an inverse head shoulder breakout from 2020-2025 which could add fuel to the ongoing fire.

Palantir

When I initially posted the trade of $PLTR at a little under $27 for the cup and handle breakout main resistance level $27.50ish and it finally broke, I could not believe my eyes. Not only was the sentiment insane for the stock and the company killing their sales, but the technical aspects were coming into fruition in a way that exceeded my overall expectations from the call (which: no complaints, but had a trader known before that it was *actually* going to breakout, maybe they would have taken a bigger risk). Now since investors started pouring in the last few months along with their S&P 500 inclusion, I would not be shocked to see this macro cup and handle achieve unthinkable highs by end of 2025 maybe even close to the mid $50s.

Gold Futures

If you are a volume trader, then back last October you would have spotted a giant green candle and volume bar on gold futures that was significant while also coming at a very timely position of the chart: right at the handle of the cup on the macro. In addition to the cup and handle, there was also an inverse head and shoulder pattern within the handle (as often times patterns end up intertwining with each other). Now similarly to SPY, this run could just be getting started with moves to the next wave of highs.

Hims and Hers

It’s funny because sometimes I feel like the best ideas are not even meaning to be technical, it’s always like: oh what am I doing or what am I buying? Or did I happen to notice something while out in the field that’s bullish? So while you can also apply the technicals as well with HIMS, this original trade was purely luck finding the company by seeing commercials on Hulu for their unique products adhering to sexual health and general well-being. I really liked their ideas and earnings, so I decided to become part of the fam. Now the stock sits at almost about $20 after news it was joining the SmallCap 600 as of last Friday up almost 6% afterhours, which like Palantir, had an announcement at a peak technical macro point: right at the handle, which leads me to believe Hims and Hers could be on the way to new highs in the next macro wave surpassing $25 and seeing the $30s finally.

S&P 500 ETF

At the end of 2022 I remember this underlying uncertainty with the markets; that year was so brutal, especially for newbies who did not understand the oil / macro high interest rate and inflationary environment trade (me definitely being one of those people but have since learned many lessons—don’t forget to read chapter 4 of your Intelligent Investor book). Regardless of the lingering 2022 bearishness, investors got back into SPY in October-November of that year and the market continued ripping to new ATHs from $380s or so all the way to $450s in 2023, which started the cup shape recovery. Then there was a minor dip and rip surpassing previous highs creating a handle-type shape. Now SPY sits at an interesting upward peak on the macro after the cup and handle breakout confirmed and then some (which: IMHO it might be due for a pullback to previous support sub $550 potentially continuing upward), but on the risk of a bigger squeeze and bears covering those lingering losses as we inch higher, the downside could be further away than we know. Regardless, the SPY macro cup and handle breakout 2023-2024 was incredible to witness, and Q4 all eyes will be on the S&P as election season and other worldwide event catalysts.