Every earnings season, three names drop at basically the same time and move the entire consumer sector like clockwork:
- Target (TGT) – the “pretty one” that everyone wants to love
- Walmart (WMT) – the “strong one” that just keeps winning
- Amazon (AMZN) – the mysterious one who shows up late, says nothing, and still steals the show
Yeah… Target, Walmart, and Amazon are literally the Charlie’s Angels of triple-threat retail trades right now. One call from Charlie (the U.S. consumer) and the whole market jumps.
Let’s break down what just happened this last week.
Target: Bosley after the haircut (rough)
Q3 was straight-up ugly, not going to lie:
- Comp sales -2.7% (third straight decline)
- Traffic -2.2%… people are literally walking past the big red balls
- EPS beat by a penny but revenue missed and guidance got chopped
- Stock got sent straight to the clearance aisle (-20% in a day)
Translation: Middle-class and higher-income shoppers are trading down or just not shopping. Target’s “cheap chic” vibe isn’t cheap enough in 2025 when eggs are still $6 and everyone’s side-hustle money ran out in 2023. BUT, that being said. I do believe there is value here with Target trading with only a PE ratio of 10 right now; for a value investor, one might look into taking a position here.
Walmart: the Drew Barrymore that learned kung-fu
Meanwhile, across the parking-lot divide:
- U.S. comps +4.5% (crushed the +4% whisper)
- E-commerce +28%, advertising +53%
- Raised full-year guidance
- Stock +5% and flirting with fresh highs
Walmart is now the default grocery + everything store for literally every income bracket. Rich people buying organic avocados? Walmart. Broke people buying Great Value beans? Also Walmart. They even flipped Sam’s Club into a bougie high-margin machine.
Walmart is eating everyone’s lunch and sending the leftovers through Walmart+ delivery in two hours.
Target vs Walmart: the tale of the tape
Target Walmart Winner Comp sales -2.7% +4.5% WMT E-commerce growth +2.4% +28% WMT Profit growth -19% +34% WMT Vibe check Sad red circles Rollback smiley WMT Stock reaction -20% +5% WMT
Walmart just completed the unofficial hostile takeover of American retail.
Amazon – the angel who never even shows up to set but still gets top billing
Amazon, old reliable:
- AWS prints money
- Advertising grows
- Prime Video drops some new Reacher season and everyone forgets to cancel
- Margin expansion because robots don’t unionize (yet)
The Triple-Threat Trade (Charlie’s Angels Setup):
So here’s the degenerate playbook right now:
- Long/Short TGT the fallen angel is bleeding but a value play nevertheless so you could go L/S and ride the wave
- Long WMT the unbreakable value fortress
- Long AMZN into Dec 4 because when the third angel finally speaks, the whole sector levitates
Or just buy all three in a basket and let the consumer sort it out. But we know how that movie ends: Walmart kicks the door down, Amazon drops from the ceiling, and Target is left holding an empty shopping bag wondering where everyone went with a little glimmer of hope.
Moral of the story? In 2025, value wins, scale wins, and delivery wins. Everything else is just background noise.
Now go place your trades before Charlie rings again.
Stonks Only go up… (unless you’re Target, which we will see you in Valhalla)
(post generated with Grok AI prompt)